Posts belonging to Category FED



US Debt

Americans’ debt level notches a new record high

Americans’ debt level notched another record high in the second quarter, after having earlier in the year surpassed its pre-crisis peak, on the back of modest rises in mortgage, auto and credit card debt, where delinquencies jumped. Total U.S. household debt was $12.84 trillion in the three months to June, up $552 billion from a year ago, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report published on Tuesday.

The proportion of overall debt that was delinquent, at 4.8 percent, was on par with the previous quarter. However a red flag was raised over the transitions of credit card balances into delinquency, which the New York Fed said “ticked up notably.” Loosening lending standards have allowed borrowers with lower credit scores to access credit cards, Andrew Haughwout, an in-house economist, said in the report.

http://www.reuters.com…   Wed.,  16  August 2017

Morgan Stanley beat Wall Street’s profit expectations

More trading revenue than the rival Goldman Sachs

Morgan Stanley beat Wall Street’s profit expectations on Wednesday, reporting gains across most of its businesses and producing more trading revenue than rival Goldman Sachs Group Inc, a rare feat. The sixth-largest U.S. bank by assets reported an 11 percent rise in second-quarter profit, generating more revenue from giving corporations advice, underwriting securities, trading equities and managing customers’ money.

The one dark spot, bond trading, fell 4 percent, much less than at Wall Street rivals that reported earnings in recent days. The $1.3 billion in revenue from that business topped Chief Executive Officer James Gorman’s $1 billion quarterly target and beat Goldman’s $1.2 billion.

Morgan Stanley shares jumped 3.9 percent to $46.95 in morning trading.

http://www.reuters.com…   Thu.,  20  July 2017

Are markets increasingly overbought ?

Bank Of America Sets A Date For The Market’s “Great Fall”

With the US stock market likely to continue its levitation today, it means that by close of trading, the S&P500 will be above 2,400, the same as Goldman’s year end price target, and 100 points away from Bank of America’s “euphoric blow off top” destination, which is also known as Michael Hartnett’s Icarus Trade. In a note released overnight, Hartnett confirms that he is “sticking with our “Icarus Trade” targets: SPX 2500, GT30 3.5%, DXY 110, oil $70/b”, even as he admits that the euphoria level in stocks is unprecedented:

  • Yes, markets are increasingly overbought (it’s now 96 trading days since SPX fell >1% in one session).
  • Yes, sentiment is increasingly bullish (our Bull & Bear Indicator is 7.0, close to the 8.0 sell-signal).
  • Yes, the easy money has been made. But we believe a March Fed rate hike at a time of booming macro data will cause the bears to fully capitulate into risk assets, causing the melt-up toward our targets in Q2.

He also notes that the renewed jump in bond yields is coinciding with renewed outperformance by small cap & banks, and by high yield bonds vs. investment grade bonds, “thus we are willing to remain long risk assets for a little longer.”

http://www.zerohedge.com…   Tue.,  11  July 2017

The future of the Bitcoin

Goldman Sachs says bitcoin could rise another 50%

Goldman Sachs is out with a call on bitcoin, and chart analyst Sheba Jafari expects the digital currency could rise as high as $3,915. That would be 52 percent above Monday’s price of about $2,567.

“The market is in wave [four] of a sequence that started in the late-’10/early-’11 lows,” Jafari wrote in a Sunday report on charts for the week ahead. We are “eventually expecting one more leg higher; a 5th wave.”

http://www.cnbc.com…   Tue.,  04  July 2017

Inflation has not yet followed lower unemployment in America

The Federal Reserve is not about to abandon the Phillips curve

That central banks cannot endlessly reduce unemployment without sparking inflation is economic gospel. It follows from “a substantial body of theory, informed by considerable historical evidence”, according to Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve. Her conviction explains why, on June 14th, the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, to a range of 1-1.25%.

Excluding food and energy, prices are only 1.5% higher than a year ago; the Fed’s inflation target is 2%. But Ms Yellen thinks unemployment is below its so-called “natural” rate, so inflation should soon rise. Is she right? Or has the relationship between unemployment and inflation, dubbed the Phillips curve, gone missing?

US debt default would be like Lehman crash

Raising the debt ceiling

A U.S. debt default would create significant confusion and uncertainty in financial markets and could prove as catastrophic as the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said in a new report.

Lawmakers in the U.S. side-stepped a debt default at the 11th eleventh hour in October and brought an end to prolonged negotiations over raising the debt ceiling. But talks are set to resume in the new year with the debt ceiling extended until February 7 and funding approved until January 15.

“An outright default would have extremely severe effects” the OECD said in the report, released on Tuesday.

http://www.cnbc.com…  Mon.,  12  June 2017

Icelandic bitcoin mine

Bitcoin is going nuclear

The digital currency is hitting all-time highs, with a single coin going for more than $2,197. It’s an epic bull run that has accelerated in recent months: Just a year ago, it was sitting at just $443. This is great news for bitcoin miners, the people responsible for creating new bitcoins. Their mining infrastructure is the backbone of bitcoin. Anyone who contributes computing power to help process transactions on the network is rewarded with the chance to “mine” bitcoin.

In plain English, in return for helping keep the network up and running, they have the chance of being given a newly created piece of the digital currency. This payout makes the entire process — with the right equipment — incredibly lucrative. It has helped spawned a huge and surreal industry.

You can mine at home, and many people do. But companies dedicated to mining have also sprung up, some worth tens of millions of dollars. These companies build huge data centres, or mines, that consume vast amounts of power and perform insane computations on the hunt for digital gold.

http://www.businessinsider.com…  Thu.,  25  May 2017

Student debt reaches about US$1.3 trillion

Student debt may drag on home ownership

US students’ debt burden is soaring, creating a barrier to home ownership and economic mobility as well as a potential drag on consumer spending, a senior Federal Reserve policymaker said on Monday (Apr 3). The phenomenon persists even as the overall picture for US household debt has steadily improved. A decade after the financial crisis, rising incomes and housing prices as well as steady job creation mean more mature borrowers are in better financial shape, said William Dudley, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. Dudley is also vice chair of the Federal Reserve committee that sets the central bank’s benchmark interest rates.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com…  Wed.,  05 April 2017

Political and financial risks threaten global growth

Will risks and financial vulnerabilities derail the modest recovery?

Global growth is projected to pick up to around 3½ per cent in 2018, from just under 3% in 2016 in our latest Interim Economic Outlook. The forecast modest recovery is supported by fiscal initiatives in major economies and broadly unchanged from the November Economic Outlook. While the pick-up is welcome, it would still leave global growth below the historical average of around 4% for the two decades prior to the crisis. This comes against the background of a five-year period where the global economy has been stuck in a low-growth trap. Consumption, investment, trade and productivity are far from strong and inequality is rising.Productivity gaps between frontier firms and laggard firms have widened, contributing to a growing income gap as wages have stagnated at less productive firms.

http://www.oecdecoscope.com…  Wed,  08 March 2017

Currency war

Trump Calls Chinese ‘Grand Champions’ of Currency Manipulation

President Donald Trump declared China the “grand champions” of currency manipulation on Thursday, just hours after his new Treasury secretary pledged a more methodical approach to analyzing Beijing’s foreign exchange practices. In an exclusive interview with Reuters, Trump said he has not “held back” in his assessment that China manipulates its yuan currency, despite not acting on a campaign promise to declare it a currency manipulator on his first day in office.

Well they, I think they’re grand champions at manipulation of currency. So I haven’t held back,” Trump said. “We’ll see what happens.

http://www.usnews.com…  Fri.,  24 February 2017